July 16, 2008

Unusual positions and very usual losses

All recent positions resulted in heavy losses. There are clear reasons:

I was completely wrong when underestimating the possible negative effects from the US housing and credit problems especially the case of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mea. Yesterday, President G. W. Bush made a press conference explaining the government plan for supporting the two firms and the deposits of American people. At the same time, Bernanke was at the senate when repeating concerns on credit conditions and also the prospect of inflation.

I was also wrong in creating the positions. In the case of selling EURUSD there were significant errors and mismanagement:

  • Although it was generally inappropriate to sell the euro at that time but considering economic data then the possible option could be EURGBP, not EURUSD.

  • Also too much risk had been taken when I hold the position in a very weak technical conditions until making almost 100 pip loss.

In the case of selling GBPUSD I made the worst choice. I sold a currency when it was facing CPI data that has been its only support in recent months. Even a very armature trader doesn't make such crude decision.

The market certainly doesn't make mistake and I paid the full price of my decisions.


No comments:

Post a Comment