Case Study: Swiss Trade Balance

Swiss TB's surplus was estimated to be narrowed to 1.60B in June from 1.87 in May. Last Friday's report already showed that Trade Balance in Euro-zone turned to deficit in June, so I thought it may be repeated again for Swiss.

However, in less than 15 minutes to the release of the report (0815 CET), USDCHF was just 15 pip above the day's low and technical data didn't reflect any weakness in Euro. EURUSD stayed at its resistance where it had passed some hours before.

Finally, the data showed that the TB surplus widened to 2.41B, well better that expected. Euro and Franc both reacted positively to the report.

I see it as a case showing how technical data, especially when diverge from fundamentals, could suggest that the market's view (or balance) might have already changed.

In this specific case, it may be the result of last night American Express earning report which reflected weakness in consumer spending. It may reflect concerns on upcoming US data on housing markets which show no sign of stabilizing. Also In my view, it could show a revised view and estimate on the report itself.