U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence also dropped to record low. I made a small profit from selling gbpjpy before the report and I decided to close it soon after announcement of a new stimulus package from Australia.
Showing posts with label UK PMI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK PMI. Show all posts
February 9, 2009
Case-study: U.K. PMI (Service)
On Feb.4, the PMI report showed that the service industry continued to contract in January. The figure came better than average estimates.
U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence also dropped to record low. I made a small profit from selling gbpjpy before the report and I decided to close it soon after announcement of a new stimulus package from Australia.
U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence also dropped to record low. I made a small profit from selling gbpjpy before the report and I decided to close it soon after announcement of a new stimulus package from Australia.
January 25, 2009
Profit on U.K. Purchasing Manager Index
UK PMI (service) was expected to show contraction, and it was just two days before the BOE rate decision. I made profit by selling GBPJPY and the position closed automatically on the pivot with nearly 100 pips profit.
October 26, 2008
OPEC Extraordinary Meeting: Missing Signals in a Noisy Environment
OPEC's members gathered in Vienna on Friday to cut production level concerning about oil prices, which has fallen more than 50 percent from its July 147 $/b to about 63 $/b in the last week. However, I was probably wrong for giving it too much weight in my daily assessment.
They finally announced a 1.5 Mb/day cut, when it was almost clear that there would be no cut more than 2 Mb/day and nobody expected to see any significant reaction to such a small cut. In fact, I was too concerned about the possibility of a temporary rally in oil, which didn’t happened at all, and its consequences on the dollar.
I think it worked as a noise, making it difficult to discover signals in the market that otherwise might be very clear. Specifically, and in combination with other factors such as being personally tired, an opportunity was missed for selling sterling at a very cheap price ahead of the U.K. GDP report (see the chart).
However, I made money that night betting on the positive reaction from the Canadian dollar, and I was completely true in closing the position (long on CADJPY) on perception of fading technical signals.
They finally announced a 1.5 Mb/day cut, when it was almost clear that there would be no cut more than 2 Mb/day and nobody expected to see any significant reaction to such a small cut. In fact, I was too concerned about the possibility of a temporary rally in oil, which didn’t happened at all, and its consequences on the dollar.
I think it worked as a noise, making it difficult to discover signals in the market that otherwise might be very clear. Specifically, and in combination with other factors such as being personally tired, an opportunity was missed for selling sterling at a very cheap price ahead of the U.K. GDP report (see the chart).
However, I made money that night betting on the positive reaction from the Canadian dollar, and I was completely true in closing the position (long on CADJPY) on perception of fading technical signals.
August 1, 2008
UK Manufacturing; Another piece of Recession Puzzle
UK Purchasing Manager Index of manufacturing dropped to 44.3 from 45.9, apparently lowest since 1998. It is when inflation rose to a decade high, house prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence indexes such as GfK's set another record low.
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