UK Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fell in November

On December 16, employment data from the UK surprised the market. Jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 6,000 when analysts were waiting for more than 12,000 increase. It was the first decline since February. Unemployment rate however rose to 7.9 percent, in line with expectations. Sterling appreciated in response and I managed to take profit by buying the pound against the dollar just minutes after the report.

147 pips Profit from the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report

On Feb. 11, I mad 147 pips of profit by selling gbpusd ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report and may be more importantly the ILO Unemployment report. It was after nearly 5 percent drop in the U.S. equity indexes on rising skepticism about the Treasury's plan for fixing the financial system.

Jobless Claims rose by 73,800 in January, a little better than the estimates, and the unemployment rate climbed to 6.3 percent. Mervyn King, the BOE Governor, painted a very gloomy picture about the state of the U.K. economy in the coming months, saying that the MPC may start buying assets to print money even before the next meeting in March. However, the charts below might show that the news was mostly priced.

Profit from Rising Unemployment in Britain

Ahead of UK GDP, I made 107 pips profit by selling gbpusd betting on the pressure from the UK unemployment report on the sterling. I had also an order at 1.4030 for the time I was asleep but it never triggered as the price didn't go beyond 1.4019.

UK' weakness might be lost in oil

Unemployment increased, TB deficit widened, GDP estimate come lower, average earnings missed estimates. It should not improve the outlook for the UK economy, but when you look at GBPUSD, which is 0.4% higher, it seems that a stronger factor works against the dollar. Today 6$ jump in oil price may be responsible, which also eroded the Wall Street confidence.