July 15, 2008

Taking an unusual position ahead of UK CPI

In less than 4 hours to UK CPI, GBPUSD has reached near its daily resistance. I think most of the data has been priced and it may be an opportunity to prepare for the possible reactions after the report. I decided to sell sterling against dollar and it may looks unusual but there are reasons to me:
  • Inflation could support a currency from interest rate perspective, but it is usually unsuitable in a long term especially when the economy increasingly shows signs of slowdown. It may be also a chance to be in a better place before tomorrow's UK Employment report.

  • After the report, the market must face economic data from US, Advanced Retail Sales and PPI which is likely to work in favor of dollar, at least in a short term.

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