I closed my positions last night (after U.S market close). Every supports was broken and there was no supportive technical data. In addition, an only pre-order for buying GBPUSD automatically triggered at its daily support which resulted in 49 pip loss very soon.
Looking at sharp drop in commodities prices show that the market may be in an adjusting process. UK CPI and US Trade Balance are ahead but I have no specific plan for the rest of the week.
Although holding positions beyond a day was in contrast by my style but a relatively small size and making a difficult decision (closing all in loss) help to control the loss.
I forget it from now, looking toward the next week. (plan of the trade)
Looking at sharp drop in commodities prices show that the market may be in an adjusting process. UK CPI and US Trade Balance are ahead but I have no specific plan for the rest of the week.
Although holding positions beyond a day was in contrast by my style but a relatively small size and making a difficult decision (closing all in loss) help to control the loss.
I forget it from now, looking toward the next week. (plan of the trade)
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Nice to see you blog about forex. So, what do u see in the next Q4 for usd?
ReplyDeletenimzoindy
Thank you for your comment.
ReplyDeleteI wish I could be able to answer the question but you may agree with me that it is really a tough one! As you know even large investment banks are in relatively different positions on the future of the U.S dollar. I can easily remember many predictions in the past four weeks that went wrong, may be not because of their weakness but from a rapidly changing condition.
However recent data, such as IMF's World Economic Outlook Update, suggest that the U.S. economy may be in a better shape when economic activity increasingly slows around the globe. The source of strength in the U.S economy may come from sharp decline in commodities prices and a traditionally low inflation in addition to the possible result from the accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.
So I think in the short term, next three to six months, the U.S. dollar could benefit from this situation, but in a longer term some well-known figures, such as Martin Feldstein and Warren Buffet, believe that the policies that the U.S. is following, especially in response to its wide trade deficit, will ultimately make the dollar weaker.