July 3, 2008

ECB finally raised interest rates; Exploring different views

French View:
French's Nicolas Sarkozy has been an opponent of ECB for what he sees as forgetting growth at the price of fighting inflation. However Sarkozy's Finance minister, Christine Lagarde seems to be comfortable with the comments from Jean Claude Trichet reducing the possibility of further interest rate rise.

"The comments of French officials carry greater weight after France on July 1 took over the presidency of the 27-nation European Union, meaning it will help shape the EU's agenda and policies for the rest of this year.", Bloomberg said.

Italian View:
Silvio Berlusconi repeatedly showed concerns on inflation especially from rising oil and other commodity prices which he blames excessive speculation as the main reason. According to Bloomberg, in the past, Berlusconi has criticized ECB for raising rates when European growth was slow, but for now, after arriving in Tokyo for attending G-8 summit, he praised ECB's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate.

European Bonds:
Two years German bund rose for the week because the market pared bet on further interest rate rise. Comment from Trichet was also effective when he said he has "no bias" on more rate moves.

Traders:
The euro will rise to $1.60 in the next two months as inflation pressures won't abate and traders will step up bets on rate increases, said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

``Trichet has confirmed that the central bank has shifted back to a more neutral stance,'' BNP Paribas SA strategists led by Hans-Guenter Redeker wrote in a research note dated yesterday. ``We believe that interest rates are now on hold, suggesting that further downward pressure on the euro is now likely to develop.'' The euro may fall to $1.53 on a break below $1.5650, according to BNP.

(This post has been added with delay)

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